Latvia U19 2–0 Slovakia U19: Result & Stats

Latvia U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slovakia U19

V. Purs 90'

M. Strods 37'

10/15/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Terrain Jos Bloes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Latvia U1942%

×Draw26%

Slovakia U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latvia U19Expected goals in this matchSlovakia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.25

Latvia U19

1.45

Slovakia U19

1.25

Latvia U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.20

creates per match

1.10

1.40

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Latvia U19

1.20

Slovakia U19

1.10

allows per match

Latvia U19

1.40

Slovakia U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Slovakia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U19 ↓

Slovakia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Latvia U19 or draw

67%

Latvia U19 or Slovakia U19

74%

Draw or Slovakia U19

58%

Winning margin

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

20%

Slovakia U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Latvia U19 1+ goals

77%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

42%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

18%

Slovakia U19 1+ goals

71%

Slovakia U19 2+ goals

36%

Slovakia U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Slovakia U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Slovakia U19 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U19 attack 1.20 + Slovakia U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Slovakia U19 attack 1.10 + Latvia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Latvia U19 scores more

42%

level

26%

Slovakia U19 scores more

33%

Latvia U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Latvia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

M. Strods

41'

A. Lami

46'

S. Haša← A. Lami

62'

O. Kubka← T. Vavrík

62'

R. Petruška← S. Dikoš

63'

F. Kóša← R. Korba

81'

T. Pališčák← M. Kucman

83'

Ņ. Barkovskis← R. Kļavinskis

88'

R. Bočs← D. Anisjko

90'

N. Barkovskis

90+1'

D. Radzenieks← K. Mežsargs

90+1'

R. Kukulis← M. Ivulāns

90'

V. Purs

Latvia

Slovakia

12

Petrúfka

4

▼

Lami

15

Staník

6

Tománek

20

▼

Kucman

13

Šarudi

8

▼

Korba

17

Pavlík

7

▼

Dikoš

16

▼

Vavrík

9

Pekelský

12

Bite

5

⚽

Purs

4

Molotkovs

2

Bērziņš

7

▼

Ivulāns

20

Mickēvičs

19

⚽

Strods

10

▼

Kļavinski

18

Gaļajevs

17

▼

Mežsargs

15

▼

Anisjko

Manager: V. Dobrecovs

83'▲Ņ. Barkovskis←▼R. Kļavinskis

88'▲R. Bočs←▼D. Anisjko

90+1'▲D. Radzenieks←▼K. Mežsargs

90+1'▲R. Kukulis←▼M. Ivulāns

Latvia U19 substitutes

6Barkovskis21Bočs9Radzenieks11Kukulis13Poļuhovičs1Auseklis14Rupeiks16Liepājnieks8Ohvovoriole

Manager: M. Fabuš

46'▲S. Haša←▼A. Lami

62'▲O. Kubka←▼T. Vavrík

62'▲R. Petruška←▼S. Dikoš

63'▲F. Kóša←▼R. Korba

81'▲T. Pališčák←▼M. Kucman

Slovakia U19 substitutes

3Haša14Kubka11Petruška19Kóša2Pališčák23Húdok18Adamkovič5Kuťka10Faško

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Latvia U19 2–0 Slovakia U19

Latvia U19 beat Slovakia U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 15, 2024.

Goals: M. Strods (37'), V. Purs (90').

The match was played at Terrain Jos Bloes in Bascharage.

Latvia U19 vs Slovakia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Latvia U19 2–0 Slovakia U19