Latvia U19 2–2 Scotland U19: Result & Stats

Latvia U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Scotland U19

H. Joksts 43'

M. Silins 4'

T. Fletcher 36'

J. Landers 7' (pen)

11/12/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Latvia U1946%

×Draw25%

Scotland U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latvia U19Expected goals in this matchScotland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.15

Latvia U19

1.55

Scotland U19

1.15

Latvia U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.20

creates per match

0.90

1.40

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Latvia U19

1.20

Scotland U19

0.90

allows per match

Latvia U19

1.40

Scotland U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U19 ↓

Scotland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Latvia U19 or draw

72%

Latvia U19 or Scotland U19

75%

Draw or Scotland U19

54%

Winning margin

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

24%

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Latvia U19 1+ goals

79%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

46%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

20%

Scotland U19 1+ goals

68%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

32%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Scotland U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U19 attack 1.20 + Scotland U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.55

Scotland U19 attack 0.90 + Latvia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Latvia U19 scores more

46%

level

25%

Scotland U19 scores more

28%

Latvia U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Latvia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Silins↳ R. Klavinskis

6'

I. Struks

7'

J. LandersPenalty

36'

T. Fletcher↳ C. Hamill

43'

H. Joksts↳ M. Galajevs

55'

S. Chambers← C. Adamson

73'

M. Caune← N. Veinbergs

79'

E. Mooney← F. Boyd

79'

O. Stirton← J. Landers

80'

S. Chambers

90+2'

K. Mosans← R. Klavinskis

90+4'

M. Spade← R. Kukulis

Latvia

Scotland

1

4

18

13

2

A

Hamill

8

⚽

Fletcher

7

Borland

17

Stewart

10

▼

Boyd

15

▼

Adamson

20

⚽

▼

Landers

23

Vitols

3

⚽

2

8

14

5

15

⚽

Joksts

19

A

Galajevs

10

A

▼

Klavinski

20

▼

Veinbergs

11

▼

Kukulis

73'▲M. Caune←▼N. Veinbergs

90+2'▲K. Mosans←▼R. Klavinskis

90+4'▲M. Spade←▼R. Kukulis

Latvia U19 substitutes

12Plavins6Gulbis7Mosans9Sprukts13Susts16Caune21Smilskalns22Spade

55'▲S. Chambers←▼C. Adamson

79'▲E. Mooney←▼F. Boyd

79'▲O. Stirton←▼J. Landers

Scotland U19 substitutes

12McGuire3Gillies5Osborne6Isiguzo9Mooney11Chambers14Mcardle16Stirton19Hale