Latvia U19 0–0 Romania U19: Result & Stats

Latvia U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Romania U19

9/21/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Latvia U1937%

×Draw27%

Romania U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latvia U19Expected goals in this matchRomania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.25

Latvia U19

1.28

Romania U19

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

1.09

1.40

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Latvia U19

1.20

Romania U19

1.09

allows per match

Latvia U19

1.40

Romania U19

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Romania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U19 ↓

Romania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Latvia U19 or draw

64%

Latvia U19 or Romania U19

73%

Draw or Romania U19

63%

Winning margin

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

16%

Romania U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Latvia U19 1+ goals

72%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

37%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

14%

Romania U19 1+ goals

71%

Romania U19 2+ goals

36%

Romania U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Romania U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Romania U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U19 attack 1.20 + Romania U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Romania U19 attack 1.09 + Latvia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Latvia U19 scores more

37%

level

27%

Romania U19 scores more

36%

Latvia U19 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Latvia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. Botogan

29'

A. Dutu

46'

D. Sits

62'

62'

63'

71'

72'

75'

O. El Sawy← A. Borduşanu

77'

Ņ. Pašņevs← D. Šits

85'

G. Leață← E. Rădăslăvescu

87'

K. Krieviņš← G. Žaleiko

90+3'

M. Alpēns← B. Melnis

Latvia

Romania

1

2

13

17

8

10

▼

Rădăslăve

5

Paşcalău

7

▼

Borduşanu

11

▼

Muși

6

▼

Boțogan

9

▼

1

2

4

13

6

5

7

▼

Žaleiko

11

Sirbu

20

Lizunovs

10

▼

Melnis

17

▼

Šits

Manager: J. Dovalils

77'▲Ņ. Pašņevs←▼D. Šits

87'▲K. Krieviņš←▼G. Žaleiko

90+3'▲M. Alpēns←▼B. Melnis

Latvia U19 substitutes

9Pašņevs18Krieviņš8Alpēns14Muradjans23Veisbuks15Vējkrīgers19Kačanovs16Patika3Semeško

Manager: A. Pelici

62'▲A. Trică←▼R. Burnete

62'▲D. Bujor←▼A. Muși

63'▲D. Sala←▼A. Boțogan

75'▲O. El Sawy←▼A. Borduşanu

85'▲G. Leață←▼E. Rădăslăvescu

Romania U19 substitutes

21Trică15Bujor18Sala20Sawy16Leață3Grigore-Huides14Kovács12Lefter4Șuteu

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Latvia U19 0–0 Romania U19

Latvia U19 and Romania U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 21, 2022.

The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural in Buftea.

Latvia U19 vs Romania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Latvia U19 0–0 Romania U19