Latvia U19 2–3 Luxembourg U19: Result & Stats

Latvia U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Luxembourg U19

R. Bočs 76'

T. Mickēvičs 50'

M. Pinheiro 88'

F. Domingos 57', 38'

10/12/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Stade Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Latvia U1945%

×Draw25%

Luxembourg U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latvia U19Expected goals in this matchLuxembourg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.26

Latvia U19

1.57

Luxembourg U19

1.26

Latvia U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

1.20

creates per match

1.13

1.40

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Latvia U19

1.20

Luxembourg U19

1.13

allows per match

Latvia U19

1.40

Luxembourg U19

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U19 ↓

Luxembourg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Latvia U19 or draw

69%

Latvia U19 or Luxembourg U19

75%

Draw or Luxembourg U19

55%

Winning margin

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

22%

Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Latvia U19 1+ goals

79%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

46%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

21%

Luxembourg U19 1+ goals

72%

Luxembourg U19 2+ goals

36%

Luxembourg U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Luxembourg U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U19 attack 1.20 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Luxembourg U19 attack 1.13 + Latvia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Latvia U19 scores more

45%

level

25%

Luxembourg U19 scores more

31%

Latvia U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Latvia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

F. Domingos

46'

M. Strods← D. Radzenieks

50'

T. Mickēvičs

57'

F. Domingos

63'

R. Bočs← R. Kļavinskis

63'

V. Ohvovoriole← M. Gaļajevs

74'

A. Qevani← F. Domingos

76'

R. Bočs

82'

J. Barbalinardo

83'

M. Pinheiro← T. Desurmont

83'

T. Leßing← J. Barbalinardo

88'

M. Pinheiro

90'

A. da Silva

90+5'

D. Duarte

90'

R. Kukulis← M. Ivulāns

90+3'

B. Giesteira← L. Nürenberg

Latvia

Luxembourg

12

Schmit

2

▼

4

19

17

8

▼

6

7

10

9

▼

Nürenberg

11

⚽2

▼

12

5

4

2

7

▼

Ivulāns

20

⚽

Mickēvičs

10

▼

Kļavinski

18

▼

Gaļajevs

15

Aņisjko

9

▼

Radzeniek

17

Mežsargs

Manager: V. Dobrecovs

46'▲M. Strods←▼D. Radzenieks

63'▲R. Bočs←▼R. Kļavinskis

63'▲V. Ohvovoriole←▼M. Gaļajevs

90'▲R. Kukulis←▼M. Ivulāns

Latvia U19 substitutes

19Strods21Bočs8Ohvovoriole11Kukulis13Poļuhovičs1Auseklis14Rupeiks6Barkovskis16Liepājnieks

Manager: M. Mutsch

74'▲A. Qevani←▼F. Domingos

83'▲M. Pinheiro←▼T. Desurmont

83'▲T. Leßing←▼J. Barbalinardo

90+3'▲B. Giesteira←▼L. Nürenberg

Luxembourg U19 substitutes

20Qevani18Pinheiro3Leßing14Giesteira1Azemi5Thelen13Foutey15Sever16Benslaiman