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Latvia U19 vs Lithuania U19 — Friendlies 2018

Latvia U19
Latvia U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lithuania U19
Lithuania U19
6/14/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Latvia U1969%
×Draw19%
Lithuania U1912%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latvia U19
2.20
Lithuania U19
0.80

Latvia U19 creates 175% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Latvia U19
2.40
Lithuania U19
1.00

allows per match

Latvia U19
0.60
Lithuania U19
2.00

finishing

Latvia U19+0.00on par
Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Latvia U19 or draw
88%
Latvia U19 or Lithuania U19
81%
Draw or Lithuania U19
31%

Winning margin

Latvia U19 wins by 2+
45%
Lithuania U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Latvia U19 1+ goals
89%
Latvia U19 2+ goals
64%
Latvia U19 3+ goals
37%
Lithuania U19 1+ goals
55%
Lithuania U19 2+ goals
19%
Lithuania U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)
85%
Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U19 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U19 attack 2.40 + Lithuania U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Lithuania U19 attack 1.00 + Latvia U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Latvia U19 scores more
69%
level
19%
Lithuania U19 scores more
12%

Latvia U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Latvia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Latvia U19 3–0 Lithuania U19

Latvia U19 beat Lithuania U19 3-0 in Friendlies on June 14, 2023.