Latvia U19 1–1 Israel U19: Result & Stats

Latvia U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Israel U19

V. Lizunovs 28'

A. Khalaili 45'

3/28/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Latvia U1928%

×Draw25%

Israel U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latvia U19Expected goals in this matchIsrael U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.59

Latvia U19

1.17

Israel U19

1.59

Israel U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

1.79

1.40

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Latvia U19

1.20

Israel U19

1.79

allows per match

Latvia U19

1.40

Israel U19

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Israel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U19 ↓

Israel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Latvia U19 or draw

53%

Latvia U19 or Israel U19

75%

Draw or Israel U19

72%

Winning margin

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

11%

Israel U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Latvia U19 1+ goals

69%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

33%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

11%

Israel U19 1+ goals

80%

Israel U19 2+ goals

47%

Israel U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Israel U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Israel U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U19 attack 1.20 + Israel U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Israel U19 attack 1.79 + Latvia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Latvia U19 scores more

28%

level

25%

Israel U19 scores more

47%

Israel U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Israel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

V. Lizunovs

45'

A. Khalaili

57'

N. Sliede

59'

D. Sirbu← A. Muradjans

60'

V. LIzunovs

65'

H. Shibli← A. Yona

65'

Z. Shimol← A. Khalaili

70'

I. Patrikejevs← G. Degtjarevs

75'

R. Nawi

80'

G. Deznet← I. Feingold

87'

E. Aizpurietis← K. Volkovs

87'

G. Patika← V. Lizunovs

87'

R. Gaučis← M. Alpēns

89'

Y. Laish← D. Kulikov

Latvia

Israel

1

Melika

4

Israelov

2

▼

Feingold

8

▼

Yona

3

Harush

13

▼

15

6

20

10

7

⚽

▼

23

2

5

21

6

17

▼

Volkovs

7

Žaleiko

14

▼

Muradjans

8

▼

Alpēns

10

⚽

▼

Lizunovs

9

▼

Degtjarev

Manager: J. Dovalils

59'▲D. Sirbu←▼A. Muradjans

70'▲I. Patrikejevs←▼G. Degtjarevs

87'▲E. Aizpurietis←▼K. Volkovs

87'▲G. Patika←▼V. Lizunovs

87'▲R. Gaučis←▼M. Alpēns

Latvia U19 substitutes

11Sirbu15Patrikejevs16Aizpurietis20Patika19Gaučis4Kačanovs18Krieviņš1Parfjonovs

Manager: O. Haim

65'▲H. Shibli←▼A. Yona

65'▲Z. Shimol←▼A. Khalaili

80'▲G. Deznet←▼I. Feingold

89'▲Y. Laish←▼D. Kulikov

Israel U19 substitutes

11Shibli19Shimol12Deznet17Laish9Jorno16Alkokin18Amedi5Elgaby

Match Recap: Latvia U19 vs Israel U19

Latvia U19 and Israel U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 28, 2023.

Goals: V. Lizunovs (28'), A. Khalaili (45').

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.

Latvia U19 vs Israel U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Latvia U19 vs Israel U19