Latvia U19 3–2 Hungary U19: Result & Stats

Latvia U19

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Hungary U19

M. Regža 90+1', 89', 15'

Z. Bévárdi 57' (pen)

N. Kundrak 55'

3/27/2018

UEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 6Telekom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Latvia U1927%

×Draw26%

Hungary U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latvia U19Expected goals in this matchHungary U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.52

Latvia U19

1.10

Hungary U19

1.52

Hungary U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.80

1.25

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Latvia U19

1.00

Hungary U19

1.80

allows per match

Latvia U19

1.25

Hungary U19

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Hungary U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U19 ↓

Hungary U19 →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Latvia U19 or draw

53%

Latvia U19 or Hungary U19

74%

Draw or Hungary U19

73%

Winning margin

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

11%

Hungary U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Latvia U19 1+ goals

67%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

30%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

10%

Hungary U19 1+ goals

78%

Hungary U19 2+ goals

45%

Hungary U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Hungary U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Latvia U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Hungary U19 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U19 attack 1.00 + Hungary U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hungary U19 attack 1.80 + Latvia U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Latvia U19 scores more

27%

level

26%

Hungary U19 scores more

47%

Hungary U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hungary U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

M. Regža

55'

N. Kundrak

57'

Z. BévárdiPenalty

63'

K. Puriņš← K. Čudars

71'

D. Stoiacovici← M. Májer

78'

T. Kiss← Z. Bévárdi

89'

M. Regža

90'

A. Jaunzems← R. Ķipsts

90+1'

M. Regža

Latvia

Hungary

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

Manager: A. Basov

63'▲K. Puriņš←▼K. Čudars

90'▲A. Jaunzems←▼R. Ķipsts

Latvia U19 substitutes

7Puriņš16Jaunzems3Minkevičs6Pelcis12Soloha15Savčenko23Serdcevs

Manager: A. Németh

71'▲D. Stoiacovici←▼M. Májer

78'▲T. Kiss←▼Z. Bévárdi

Hungary U19 substitutes

20Stoiacovici21Kiss1Bese2Krebsz15Bolla19Lakatos16Kovács3Kiliti