Latvia U19 1–2 Denmark U19: Result & Stats

Latvia U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Denmark U19

J. Grīnbergs 2'

J. Odgaard 29'

A. Poulsen 26'

11/8/2017

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Stadion Rovinjsko selo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Latvia U1938%

×Draw25%

Denmark U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latvia U19Expected goals in this matchDenmark U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.41

Latvia U19

1.43

Denmark U19

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.57

1.25

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Latvia U19

1.00

Denmark U19

1.57

allows per match

Latvia U19

1.25

Denmark U19

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Denmark U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U19 ↓

Denmark U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Latvia U19 or draw

63%

Latvia U19 or Denmark U19

75%

Draw or Denmark U19

62%

Winning margin

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

18%

Denmark U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Latvia U19 1+ goals

76%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

42%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

17%

Denmark U19 1+ goals

76%

Denmark U19 2+ goals

41%

Denmark U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Denmark U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U19 attack 1.00 + Denmark U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Denmark U19 attack 1.57 + Latvia U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Latvia U19 scores more

38%

level

25%

Denmark U19 scores more

37%

Latvia U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Latvia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

J. Grīnbergs

26'

A. Poulsen

29'

J. Odgaard

59'

B. Samoilovs← I. Savčenko

65'

A. Olsen← J. Odgaard

Latvia

Denmark

1

Hauervig

4

Sørensen

5

⚽

2

3

10

6

14

9

⚽

▼

11

7

1

10

⚽

2

5

6

14

15

▼

18

4

9

17

Manager: A. Basov

59'▲B. Samoilovs←▼I. Savčenko

Latvia U19 substitutes

11Samoilovs16Jaunzems3Minkevičs19Čudars7Puriņš13Rubenis12Soloha

Manager: H. Clausen

65'▲A. Olsen←▼J. Odgaard

Denmark U19 substitutes

15Olsen17Molberg20Jørgensen13Sørensen8Andersen18Mattsson12Nielsen16Christensen19Jensen