Latvia U17 2–5 Switzerland U17: Result & Stats

Latvia U17

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Switzerland U17

3/22/2023

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Latvia U1724%

×Draw22%

Switzerland U1753%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latvia U17Expected goals in this matchSwitzerland U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.90

Latvia U17

1.22

Switzerland U17

1.90

Switzerland U17 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

0.89

creates per match

1.91

1.89

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Latvia U17

0.89

Switzerland U17

1.91

allows per match

Latvia U17

1.89

Switzerland U17

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia U17+0.00on par

Switzerland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U17 ↓

Switzerland U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Latvia U17 or draw

47%

Latvia U17 or Switzerland U17

78%

Draw or Switzerland U17

76%

Winning margin

Latvia U17 wins by 2+

10%

Switzerland U17 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Latvia U17 1+ goals

70%

Latvia U17 2+ goals

34%

Latvia U17 3+ goals

12%

Switzerland U17 1+ goals

85%

Switzerland U17 2+ goals

56%

Switzerland U17 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Latvia U17 (draw refunded)

32%

Switzerland U17 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U17 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Switzerland U17 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U17 attack 0.89 + Switzerland U17 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

Switzerland U17 attack 1.91 + Latvia U17 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Latvia U17 scores more

24%

level

22%

Switzerland U17 scores more

53%

Switzerland U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Switzerland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff