Latvia U17 1–0 Slovakia U17: Result & Stats

Latvia U17

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slovakia U17

10/19/2022

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Baza Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Latvia U1733%

×Draw26%

Slovakia U1741%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latvia U17Expected goals in this matchSlovakia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.44

Latvia U17

1.26

Slovakia U17

1.44

Slovakia U17 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

0.89

creates per match

1.00

1.89

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Latvia U17

0.89

Slovakia U17

1.00

allows per match

Latvia U17

1.89

Slovakia U17

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia U17+0.00on par

Slovakia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U17 ↓

Slovakia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Latvia U17 or draw

59%

Latvia U17 or Slovakia U17

74%

Draw or Slovakia U17

67%

Winning margin

Latvia U17 wins by 2+

14%

Slovakia U17 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Latvia U17 1+ goals

72%

Latvia U17 2+ goals

36%

Latvia U17 3+ goals

13%

Slovakia U17 1+ goals

76%

Slovakia U17 2+ goals

42%

Slovakia U17 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Latvia U17 (draw refunded)

44%

Slovakia U17 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U17 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Slovakia U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U17 attack 0.89 + Slovakia U17 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.26

Slovakia U17 attack 1.00 + Latvia U17 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Latvia U17 scores more

33%

level

26%

Slovakia U17 scores more

41%

Slovakia U17 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slovakia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff