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Latte Dolce vs Puteolana — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Puteolana
Puteolana
3/9/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 27Stadio Comunale Latte Dolce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Latte Dolce39%
×Draw27%
Puteolana34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latte Dolce
1.32
Puteolana
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

Latte Dolce
1.41
Puteolana
1.24

allows per match

Latte Dolce
1.20
Puteolana
1.24

finishing

Latte Dolce+0.00on par
Puteolana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latte Dolce ↓

Puteolana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Latte Dolce or draw
66%
Latte Dolce or Puteolana
73%
Draw or Puteolana
61%

Winning margin

Latte Dolce wins by 2+
18%
Puteolana wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Latte Dolce 1+ goals
73%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
38%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
15%
Puteolana 1+ goals
70%
Puteolana 2+ goals
34%
Puteolana 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
53%
Puteolana (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latte Dolce at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Puteolana away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latte Dolce attack 1.41 + Puteolana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Puteolana attack 1.24 + Latte Dolce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Latte Dolce scores more
39%
level
27%
Puteolana scores more
34%

Latte Dolce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Latte Dolce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Latte Dolce vs Puteolana

Latte Dolce beat Puteolana 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Latte Dolce in Sassari.