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Latte Dolce vs Nocerina — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nocerina
Nocerina
12/10/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 15Campo Sportivo Adriana Spazzoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Latte Dolce33%
×Draw28%
Nocerina38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latte Dolce
1.11
Nocerina
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 34 away

creates per match

Latte Dolce
1.41
Nocerina
1.21

allows per match

Latte Dolce
1.20
Nocerina
0.82

finishing

Latte Dolce+0.00on par
Nocerina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latte Dolce ↓

Nocerina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Latte Dolce or draw
62%
Latte Dolce or Nocerina
72%
Draw or Nocerina
67%

Winning margin

Latte Dolce wins by 2+
13%
Nocerina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Latte Dolce 1+ goals
67%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
30%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
10%
Nocerina 1+ goals
70%
Nocerina 2+ goals
34%
Nocerina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
47%
Nocerina (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latte Dolce at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Nocerina away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latte Dolce attack 1.41 + Nocerina defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nocerina attack 1.21 + Latte Dolce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Latte Dolce scores more
33%
level
28%
Nocerina scores more
38%

Nocerina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nocerina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Latte Dolce vs Nocerina

Latte Dolce and Nocerina drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Adriana Spazzoli in Sassuolo.