Latte Dolce vs Città di Anagni

Latte Dolce

PST

13:00

Città di Anagni

4/19/2020

Serie D - Girone G · Round 32Stadio Comunale Latte Dolce (Sassari)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Latte Dolce45%

×Draw25%

Città di Anagni30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latte DolceExpected goals in this matchCittà di Anagni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.25

Latte Dolce

1.59

Città di Anagni

1.25

Latte Dolce creates 27% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 13 away

1.41

creates per match

1.31

1.20

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Latte Dolce

1.41

Città di Anagni

1.31

allows per match

Latte Dolce

1.20

Città di Anagni

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Città di Anagni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latte Dolce ↓

Città di Anagni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Latte Dolce or draw

70%

Latte Dolce or Città di Anagni

75%

Draw or Città di Anagni

55%

Winning margin

Latte Dolce wins by 2+

23%

Città di Anagni wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Latte Dolce 1+ goals

80%

Latte Dolce 2+ goals

47%

Latte Dolce 3+ goals

21%

Città di Anagni 1+ goals

71%

Città di Anagni 2+ goals

36%

Città di Anagni 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)

60%

Città di Anagni (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latte Dolce at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Città di Anagni away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latte Dolce attack 1.41 + Città di Anagni defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.59

Città di Anagni attack 1.31 + Latte Dolce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Latte Dolce scores more

45%

level

25%

Città di Anagni scores more

30%

Latte Dolce at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Latte Dolce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff