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Città di Anagni vs Latte Dolce — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Città di Anagni
Città di Anagni
FT
1 – 2
Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
12/8/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 15Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Città di Anagni37%
×Draw26%
Latte Dolce37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Città di Anagni
1.37
Latte Dolce
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 82 away

creates per match

Città di Anagni
1.15
Latte Dolce
1.10

allows per match

Città di Anagni
1.62
Latte Dolce
1.59

finishing

Città di Anagni+0.00on par
Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Città di Anagni ↓

Latte Dolce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Città di Anagni or draw
63%
Città di Anagni or Latte Dolce
74%
Draw or Latte Dolce
63%

Winning margin

Città di Anagni wins by 2+
17%
Latte Dolce wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Città di Anagni 1+ goals
75%
Città di Anagni 2+ goals
40%
Città di Anagni 3+ goals
16%
Latte Dolce 1+ goals
74%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
39%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Città di Anagni (draw refunded)
50%
Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Città di Anagni at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Città di Anagni attack 1.15 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Città di Anagni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Città di Anagni scores more
37%
level
26%
Latte Dolce scores more
37%

Città di Anagni at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Città di Anagni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Città di Anagni vs Latte Dolce

Latte Dolce beat Città di Anagni 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro).