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Latte Dolce vs Carbonia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Carbonia
Carbonia
3/18/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 18Stadio Comunale Latte Dolce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Latte Dolce52%
×Draw23%
Carbonia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latte Dolce
1.79
Carbonia
1.16

Latte Dolce creates 54% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

Latte Dolce
1.41
Carbonia
1.12

allows per match

Latte Dolce
1.20
Carbonia
2.18

finishing

Latte Dolce+0.00on par
Carbonia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latte Dolce ↓

Carbonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Latte Dolce or draw
75%
Latte Dolce or Carbonia
77%
Draw or Carbonia
48%

Winning margin

Latte Dolce wins by 2+
29%
Carbonia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Latte Dolce 1+ goals
83%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
53%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
26%
Carbonia 1+ goals
69%
Carbonia 2+ goals
32%
Carbonia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
68%
Carbonia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latte Dolce at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Carbonia away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latte Dolce attack 1.41 + Carbonia defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.79

Carbonia attack 1.12 + Latte Dolce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Latte Dolce scores more
52%
level
23%
Carbonia scores more
25%

Latte Dolce at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Latte Dolce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Latte Dolce vs Carbonia

Carbonia beat Latte Dolce 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on March 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Latte Dolce in Sassari.