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Latte Dolce vs Afragolese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Afragolese
Afragolese
2/27/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 22Campo sportivo comunale Peppino Sau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Latte Dolce44%
×Draw25%
Afragolese30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latte Dolce
1.53
Afragolese
1.22

Latte Dolce creates 25% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

Latte Dolce
1.41
Afragolese
1.24

allows per match

Latte Dolce
1.20
Afragolese
1.65

finishing

Latte Dolce+0.00on par
Afragolese+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latte Dolce ↓

Afragolese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Latte Dolce or draw
70%
Latte Dolce or Afragolese
75%
Draw or Afragolese
56%

Winning margin

Latte Dolce wins by 2+
22%
Afragolese wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Latte Dolce 1+ goals
78%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
45%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
20%
Afragolese 1+ goals
70%
Afragolese 2+ goals
34%
Afragolese 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
59%
Afragolese (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latte Dolce at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Afragolese away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latte Dolce attack 1.41 + Afragolese defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.53

Afragolese attack 1.24 + Latte Dolce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Latte Dolce scores more
44%
level
25%
Afragolese scores more
30%

Latte Dolce at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Latte Dolce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Latte Dolce vs Afragolese

Afragolese beat Latte Dolce 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Campo sportivo comunale Peppino Sau in Usini.