Latina 1–0 Viterbese: Result & Stats | League #943

Latina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viterbese

S. Ganz 90+1'

2/1/2023

League #943 · Girone C - 25Stadio Comunale Domenico Francioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Latina49%

×Draw27%

Viterbese24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LatinaExpected goals in this matchViterbese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.90

Latina

1.42

Viterbese

0.90

Latina creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.43

creates per match

0.80

1.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Latina

1.43

Viterbese

0.80

allows per match

Latina

1.00

Viterbese

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latina+0.00on par

Viterbese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latina ↓

Viterbese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Latina or draw

76%

Latina or Viterbese

73%

Draw or Viterbese

51%

Winning margin

Latina wins by 2+

24%

Viterbese wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Latina 1+ goals

76%

Latina 2+ goals

41%

Latina 3+ goals

17%

Viterbese 1+ goals

59%

Viterbese 2+ goals

23%

Viterbese 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Latina (draw refunded)

67%

Viterbese (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latina at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Viterbese away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latina attack 1.43 + Viterbese defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Viterbese attack 0.80 + Latina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Latina scores more

49%

level

27%

Viterbese scores more

24%

Latina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Latina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

D. Pavlev

21'

E. De Santis← F. Cortinovis

36'

L. Megelaitis

46'

L. Di Livio← A. Riccardi

51'

58'

A. Marotta← S. DUffizi

60'

S. Ganz← L. Fabrizi

60'

F. Furlan← C. Barberini

78'

A. Barillà← A. Polidori

78'

S. Jallow← S. Andreis

82'

L. Peschetola← N. Belloni

84'

86'

B. Calabrese

90+2'

B. Calabrese

90+2'

B. Calabrese

90+3'

90+1'

S. Ganz

Latina

Viterbese

77

11

14

19

34

17

8

25

21

▼

Andreis

18

▼

Polidori

15

▼

22

27

24

75

▼

Cortinovi

25

Calabrese

23

Bordin

14

▼

Barberini

8

Sannipoli

29

▼

Fabrizi

30

▼

Riccardi

9

▼

Belloni

Manager: D. Di Donato

21'▲E. De Santis←▼F. Cortinovis

46'▲L. Di Livio←▼A. Riccardi

60'▲S. Ganz←▼L. Fabrizi

60'▲F. Furlan←▼C. Barberini

82'▲L. Peschetola←▼N. Belloni

Latina substitutes

13Santis7Livio10Ganz90Furlan20Peschetola1Cardinali4Pellegrino12Giannini16Mino19Celli21Nori33Gallo

Manager: G. Lopez

58'▲A. Marotta←▼S. DUffizi

78'▲A. Barillà←▼A. Polidori

78'▲S. Jallow←▼S. Andreis

Viterbese substitutes

9Marotta71Barillà7Jallow1Dekic5Oyndamola13Ricci24M'Baye32Spolverini42Cats99Montaperto16Mastropietro