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Latina vs Portici — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Latina
Latina
FT
2 – 0
Portici
Portici
10/20/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 8Stadio Comunale Domenico Francioni (Latina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Latina51%
×Draw27%
Portici21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latina
1.40
Portici
0.79

Latina creates 77% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

creates per match

Latina
1.38
Portici
0.80

allows per match

Latina
0.77
Portici
1.43

finishing

Latina+0.00on par
Portici+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latina ↓

Portici →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Latina or draw
79%
Latina or Portici
73%
Draw or Portici
49%

Winning margin

Latina wins by 2+
25%
Portici wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Latina 1+ goals
75%
Latina 2+ goals
41%
Latina 3+ goals
17%
Portici 1+ goals
55%
Portici 2+ goals
19%
Portici 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Latina (draw refunded)
71%
Portici (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latina at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Portici away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latina attack 1.38 + Portici defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Portici attack 0.80 + Latina defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Latina scores more
51%
level
27%
Portici scores more
21%

Latina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Latina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Latina 2–0 Portici

Latina beat Portici 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Domenico Francioni (Latina).