Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Latina vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Latina
Latina
FT
1 – 2
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
1/5/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 18Stadio Comunale Domenico Francioni (Latina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Latina38%
×Draw27%
Ostia Mare35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latina
1.26
Ostia Mare
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 48 away

creates per match

Latina
1.38
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Latina
0.77
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Latina+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latina ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Latina or draw
65%
Latina or Ostia Mare
73%
Draw or Ostia Mare
62%

Winning margin

Latina wins by 2+
17%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Latina 1+ goals
72%
Latina 2+ goals
36%
Latina 3+ goals
13%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
70%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
33%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Latina (draw refunded)
52%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latina at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latina attack 1.38 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Latina defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Latina scores more
38%
level
27%
Ostia Mare scores more
35%

Latina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Latina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Latina 1–2 Ostia Mare

Ostia Mare beat Latina 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Domenico Francioni (Latina).