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Lasten vs TP 49 — Suomen Cup 2018

Lasten
Lasten
FT
6 – 2
TP 49
TP 49
3/19/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lasten39%
×Draw18%
TP 4944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lasten
2.83
TP 49
3.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lasten
2.33
TP 49
3.33

allows per match

Lasten
2.67
TP 49
3.33

finishing

Lasten+0.00on par
TP 49+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lasten ↓

TP 49 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Lasten or draw
56%
Lasten or TP 49
82%
Draw or TP 49
61%

Winning margin

Lasten wins by 2+
23%
TP 49 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Lasten 1+ goals
94%
Lasten 2+ goals
77%
Lasten 3+ goals
53%
TP 49 1+ goals
95%
TP 49 2+ goals
79%
TP 49 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Lasten (draw refunded)
47%
TP 49 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lasten at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

TP 49 away — creates 3.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lasten attack 2.33 + TP 49 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

TP 49 attack 3.33 + Lasten defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lasten scores more
39%
level
18%
TP 49 scores more
44%

TP 49 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "TP 49 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Lasten 6–2 TP 49

Lasten beat TP 49 6-2 in Suomen Cup on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Kauppi 3 TN in Tampere.