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Lasten vs Inter Turku — Suomen Cup 2018

Lasten
Lasten
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
4/15/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundKauppi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lasten25%
×Draw19%
Inter Turku56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lasten
1.59
Inter Turku
2.45

Inter Turku creates 54% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

creates per match

Lasten
2.33
Inter Turku
2.23

allows per match

Lasten
2.67
Inter Turku
0.86

finishing

Lasten+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lasten ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Lasten or draw
44%
Lasten or Inter Turku
81%
Draw or Inter Turku
75%

Winning margin

Lasten wins by 2+
11%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Lasten 1+ goals
80%
Lasten 2+ goals
47%
Lasten 3+ goals
21%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
91%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
70%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Lasten (draw refunded)
30%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lasten at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lasten attack 2.33 + Inter Turku defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.59

Inter Turku attack 2.23 + Lasten defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lasten scores more
25%
level
19%
Inter Turku scores more
56%

Inter Turku at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lasten vs Inter Turku

Inter Turku beat Lasten 4-0 in Suomen Cup on April 15, 2025.

The match was played at Kauppi tekonurmi in Tampere.