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Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg — Bundesliga 2018

Lask Linz
Lask Linz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
H. Smolčić 48'
P. Mijić 45+1'
11/2/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 12Raiffeisen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Lask Linz60%
×Draw23%
TSV Hartberg18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lask Linz
1.81
TSV Hartberg
0.86

Lask Linz creates 110% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lask Linz
2.04
TSV Hartberg
0.61

allows per match

Lask Linz
1.11
TSV Hartberg
1.58

finishing

Lask Linz-0.31scores less
TSV Hartberg+0.49scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

TSV Hartberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw
82%
Lask Linz or TSV Hartberg
77%
Draw or TSV Hartberg
40%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+
34%
TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals
84%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
54%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
27%
TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
58%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
21%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)
77%
TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.11 · 11 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 2.04 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.81

TSV Hartberg attack 0.61 + Lask Linz defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lask Linz scores more
60%
level
23%
TSV Hartberg scores more
18%

Lask Linz at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
R. ŽuljLask LinzLask Linz · M
8.3

Match Events

22'
George Bello
31'
Dominik Prokop
45+1'
P. Mijić↳ D. Prokop
48'
H. Smolčić↳ R. Žulj
60'
V. Berisha← F. Flecker
66'
M. Talovierov← H. Smolčić
66'
M. Ljubičić← M. Entrup
69'
A. Schwarz← P. Mijić
74'
Melayro Bogarde
75'
Mateo Karamatić
76'
Y. Diarra← D. Prokop
82'
A. Taoui← B. Jovičić
86'
M. Fillafer← D. Avdijaj
90'
Youba Diarra

Possession

58%Lask

Shots

13Lask

Pass accuracy

52%Lask

Statistics

LaskTSV
Overview
58%Possession42%
13Total Shots5
6Corners1
15Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots5
4On Target3
6Off Target2
3Blocked0
9Inside Box4
4Outside Box1
Passing
58%Possession42%
514Total Passes388
437Accurate Passes304
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Bundesliga: Lask Linz 1–1 TSV Hartberg

Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on November 2, 2024.

Goals: P. Mijić (45+1'), H. Smolčić (48').

Lask Linz controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena in Linz.