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Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz — Bundesliga 2018

Lask Linz
Lask Linz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
4/19/2026BundesligaBundesliga · Championship Group - 27Raiffeisen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Lask Linz40%
×Draw25%
Sturm Graz35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lask Linz
1.51
Sturm Graz
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 129 away

creates per match

Lask Linz
1.82
Sturm Graz
1.61

allows per match

Lask Linz
1.14
Sturm Graz
1.20

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw
65%
Lask Linz or Sturm Graz
75%
Draw or Sturm Graz
60%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+
20%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals
78%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
44%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
19%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
75%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
40%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)
54%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.14 · 130 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 1.82 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sturm Graz attack 1.61 + Lask Linz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lask Linz scores more
40%
level
25%
Sturm Graz scores more
35%

Lask Linz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Lask Linz 1–1 Sturm Graz

Lask Linz and Sturm Graz drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena in Linz.