Lask Linz 2–1 Hansa Rostock: Result & Stats

Lask Linz

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hansa Rostock

1/10/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sueno Sports Center - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lask Linz14%

×Draw15%

Hansa Rostock71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lask LinzExpected goals in this matchHansa Rostock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.94

Lask Linz

1.25

Hansa Rostock

2.94

Hansa Rostock creates 135% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.79

creates per match

4.30

1.57

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Lask Linz

1.79

Hansa Rostock

4.30

allows per match

Lask Linz

1.57

Hansa Rostock

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Hansa Rostock →

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw

29%

Lask Linz or Hansa Rostock

85%

Draw or Hansa Rostock

86%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals

71%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

36%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

13%

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

95%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

79%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

16%

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 4.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 1.79 + Hansa Rostock defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hansa Rostock attack 4.30 + Lask Linz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Lask Linz scores more

14%

level

15%

Hansa Rostock scores more

71%

Hansa Rostock at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff