Lask Linz vs Grazer AK: Preview & Prediction

Lask Linz

Preview

17:30

Grazer AK

7/31/2026

Bundesliga · Round 1Raiffeisen Arena

Big match

47%

Lask Linz

model favours

47%25%29%

Grazer AK score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lask Linz47%

×Draw25%

Grazer AK29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lask LinzExpected goals in this matchGrazer AK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.19

Lask Linz

1.59

Grazer AK

1.19

Lask Linz creates 34% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.94

creates per match

1.48

0.89

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Lask Linz

1.94

Grazer AK

1.48

allows per match

Lask Linz

0.89

Grazer AK

1.25

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

Lask Linz+0.06on par

Grazer AK+0.52scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Grazer AK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw

71%

Lask Linz or Grazer AK

75%

Draw or Grazer AK

53%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+

24%

Grazer AK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals

80%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

47%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

21%

Grazer AK 1+ goals

70%

Grazer AK 2+ goals

33%

Grazer AK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

62%

Grazer AK (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.89 · 7 matches

Grazer AK away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 1.94 + Grazer AK defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.59

Grazer AK attack 1.48 + Lask Linz defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lask Linz scores more

47%

level

25%

Grazer AK scores more

29%

Lask Linz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both sides lean high-scoring (70% and 70% over 2.5)
70% of Lask Linz’s matches go over 2.5 goals
70% of Grazer AK’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Style contrast — Lask Linz play Attack-heavy, Grazer AK Direct / counter-attacking
Lask Linz sit 1, Grazer AK 11 in the table
Lask Linz fall short of their xG (1.5 vs 1.9 expected)