Lask Linz vs Grazer AK — Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Lask Linz53%
Grazer AK24%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Lask Linz creates 61% more chances
Season form · 126 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Lask Linz ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Lask Linz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.17 · 126 matches
Grazer AK away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Lask Linz attack 1.85 + Grazer AK defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79
Grazer AK attack 1.06 + Lask Linz defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Lask Linz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Lask Linz substitutes
Grazer AK substitutes
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Lask Linz host Grazer AK on Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Lask Linz vs Grazer AK
Lask Linz beat Grazer AK 1-0 in Bundesliga on April 5, 2025.
Goals: M. Jovičić (71' o.g.).
Lask Linz controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 14.
The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena in Linz.