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Lask Linz vs FCSB — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lask Linz
Lask Linz
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FCSB
FCSB
1/14/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gloria Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lask Linz38%
×Draw22%
FCSB40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lask Linz
1.81
FCSB
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lask Linz
1.79
FCSB
2.17

allows per match

Lask Linz
1.57
FCSB
1.83

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw
60%
Lask Linz or FCSB
78%
Draw or FCSB
62%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+
20%
FCSB wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals
84%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
54%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
27%
FCSB 1+ goals
85%
FCSB 2+ goals
56%
FCSB 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)
48%
FCSB (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

FCSB away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 1.79 + FCSB defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

FCSB attack 2.17 + Lask Linz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lask Linz scores more
38%
level
22%
FCSB scores more
40%

FCSB at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lask Linz vs FCSB

FCSB beat Lask Linz 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Gloria Sports Arena in Belek.