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Lask Linz vs Dinamo Moscow — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lask Linz
Lask Linz
FT
3 – 0
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kornspitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lask Linz41%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Moscow35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lask Linz
1.59
Dinamo Moscow
1.44

Lask Linz creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lask Linz
1.79
Dinamo Moscow
1.30

allows per match

Lask Linz
1.57
Dinamo Moscow
1.40

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw
65%
Lask Linz or Dinamo Moscow
76%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
59%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+
21%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals
80%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
47%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
21%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)
54%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 1.79 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.30 + Lask Linz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lask Linz scores more
41%
level
24%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
35%

Lask Linz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Lask Linz 3–0 Dinamo Moscow

Lask Linz beat Dinamo Moscow 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Kornspitz-Arena in Pregarten.