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Lask Linz vs Cercle Brugge — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Lask Linz
Lask Linz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
11/7/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Raiffeisen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lask Linz45%
×Draw22%
Cercle Brugge33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lask Linz
1.91
Cercle Brugge
1.60

Lask Linz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lask Linz
2.22
Cercle Brugge
2.20

allows per match

Lask Linz
1.00
Cercle Brugge
1.60

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par
Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw
67%
Lask Linz or Cercle Brugge
78%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
55%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+
25%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals
85%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
57%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
30%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
80%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
47%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)
58%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 2.22 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.91

Cercle Brugge attack 2.20 + Lask Linz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lask Linz scores more
45%
level
22%
Cercle Brugge scores more
33%

Lask Linz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Lask Linz 0–0 Cercle Brugge

Lask Linz and Cercle Brugge drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 7, 2024.

The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena in Linz.