Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

LASK Juniors vs Wolfsberger AC II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

LASK Juniors
LASK Juniors
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wolfsberger AC II
Wolfsberger AC II
5/12/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 26voestalpine Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

LASK Juniors51%
×Draw22%
Wolfsberger AC II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LASK Juniors
2.02
Wolfsberger AC II
1.42

LASK Juniors creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 96 away

creates per match

LASK Juniors
2.30
Wolfsberger AC II
1.84

allows per match

LASK Juniors
1.00
Wolfsberger AC II
1.74

finishing

LASK Juniors+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LASK Juniors ↓

Wolfsberger AC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

LASK Juniors or draw
73%
LASK Juniors or Wolfsberger AC II
78%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC II
49%

Winning margin

LASK Juniors wins by 2+
30%
Wolfsberger AC II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

LASK Juniors 1+ goals
87%
LASK Juniors 2+ goals
60%
LASK Juniors 3+ goals
33%
Wolfsberger AC II 1+ goals
76%
Wolfsberger AC II 2+ goals
41%
Wolfsberger AC II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

LASK Juniors (draw refunded)
65%
Wolfsberger AC II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LASK Juniors at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

Wolfsberger AC II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.74 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LASK Juniors attack 2.30 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.02

Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.84 + LASK Juniors defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

LASK Juniors scores more
51%
level
22%
Wolfsberger AC II scores more
27%

LASK Juniors at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "LASK Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: LASK Juniors 3–1 Wolfsberger AC II

LASK Juniors beat Wolfsberger AC II 3-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at voestalpine Stadion in Pasching.