LASK Juniors 2–2 Voitsberg: Result & Stats

LASK Juniors

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Voitsberg

8/4/2023

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 2voestalpine Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

LASK Juniors35%

×Draw22%

Voitsberg43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LASK JuniorsExpected goals in this matchVoitsberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.95

LASK Juniors

1.73

Voitsberg

1.95

Voitsberg creates 13% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

2.30

creates per match

2.90

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

LASK Juniors

2.30

Voitsberg

2.90

allows per match

LASK Juniors

1.00

Voitsberg

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LASK Juniors+0.00on par

Voitsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LASK Juniors ↓

Voitsberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

LASK Juniors or draw

57%

LASK Juniors or Voitsberg

78%

Draw or Voitsberg

65%

Winning margin

LASK Juniors wins by 2+

17%

Voitsberg wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

LASK Juniors 1+ goals

82%

LASK Juniors 2+ goals

52%

LASK Juniors 3+ goals

25%

Voitsberg 1+ goals

86%

Voitsberg 2+ goals

58%

Voitsberg 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

LASK Juniors (draw refunded)

44%

Voitsberg (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LASK Juniors at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

Voitsberg away — creates 2.90, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LASK Juniors attack 2.30 + Voitsberg defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Voitsberg attack 2.90 + LASK Juniors defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

LASK Juniors scores more

35%

level

22%

Voitsberg scores more

43%

Voitsberg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Voitsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff