LASK Juniors 3–3 Hertha: Result & Stats

LASK Juniors

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Hertha

6/2/2023

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 29voestalpine Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

LASK Juniors51%

×Draw22%

Hertha27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LASK JuniorsExpected goals in this matchHertha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.39

LASK Juniors

1.97

Hertha

1.39

LASK Juniors creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

2.30

creates per match

1.77

1.00

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

LASK Juniors

2.30

Hertha

1.77

allows per match

LASK Juniors

1.00

Hertha

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LASK Juniors+0.00on par

Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LASK Juniors ↓

Hertha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

LASK Juniors or draw

73%

LASK Juniors or Hertha

78%

Draw or Hertha

49%

Winning margin

LASK Juniors wins by 2+

29%

Hertha wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

LASK Juniors 1+ goals

86%

LASK Juniors 2+ goals

58%

LASK Juniors 3+ goals

31%

Hertha 1+ goals

75%

Hertha 2+ goals

40%

Hertha 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

LASK Juniors (draw refunded)

65%

Hertha (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LASK Juniors at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

Hertha away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.64 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LASK Juniors attack 2.30 + Hertha defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.97

Hertha attack 1.77 + LASK Juniors defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

LASK Juniors scores more

51%

level

22%

Hertha scores more

27%

LASK Juniors at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "LASK Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff