Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

LASK Juniors vs Gurten — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

LASK Juniors
LASK Juniors
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gurten
Gurten
8/22/2025Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 4voestalpine Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

LASK Juniors48%
×Draw24%
Gurten29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LASK Juniors
1.74
Gurten
1.29

LASK Juniors creates 35% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 106 away

creates per match

LASK Juniors
2.30
Gurten
1.58

allows per match

LASK Juniors
1.00
Gurten
1.18

finishing

LASK Juniors+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LASK Juniors ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

LASK Juniors or draw
71%
LASK Juniors or Gurten
76%
Draw or Gurten
52%

Winning margin

LASK Juniors wins by 2+
26%
Gurten wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

LASK Juniors 1+ goals
82%
LASK Juniors 2+ goals
52%
LASK Juniors 3+ goals
25%
Gurten 1+ goals
72%
Gurten 2+ goals
37%
Gurten 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

LASK Juniors (draw refunded)
63%
Gurten (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LASK Juniors at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LASK Juniors attack 2.30 + Gurten defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.74

Gurten attack 1.58 + LASK Juniors defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

LASK Juniors scores more
48%
level
24%
Gurten scores more
29%

LASK Juniors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "LASK Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LASK Juniors vs Gurten

LASK Juniors beat Gurten 3-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on August 22, 2025.

The match was played at voestalpine Stadion in Pasching.