LASK Juniors 7–3 Gleisdorf 09: Result & Stats

LASK Juniors

FT

7 – 3

HT: 4 – 1

Gleisdorf 09

9/21/2025

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 8voestalpine Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

LASK Juniors53%

×Draw22%

Gleisdorf 0925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LASK JuniorsExpected goals in this matchGleisdorf 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.27

LASK Juniors

1.95

Gleisdorf 09

1.27

LASK Juniors creates 54% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 105 away

2.30

creates per match

1.54

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

LASK Juniors

2.30

Gleisdorf 09

1.54

allows per match

LASK Juniors

1.00

Gleisdorf 09

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LASK Juniors+0.00on par

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LASK Juniors ↓

Gleisdorf 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

LASK Juniors or draw

75%

LASK Juniors or Gleisdorf 09

78%

Draw or Gleisdorf 09

47%

Winning margin

LASK Juniors wins by 2+

31%

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

LASK Juniors 1+ goals

86%

LASK Juniors 2+ goals

58%

LASK Juniors 3+ goals

31%

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals

72%

Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals

36%

Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

LASK Juniors (draw refunded)

68%

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LASK Juniors at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

Gleisdorf 09 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.60 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LASK Juniors attack 2.30 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.95

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.54 + LASK Juniors defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

LASK Juniors scores more

53%

level

22%

Gleisdorf 09 scores more

25%

LASK Juniors at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "LASK Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff