Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Las Zocas vs Unión Viera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Zocas
Las Zocas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Unión Viera
Unión Viera
10/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 7Estadio Juanito Marrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Las Zocas35%
×Draw26%
Unión Viera38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Zocas
1.28
Unión Viera
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 60 away

creates per match

Las Zocas
0.63
Unión Viera
0.87

allows per match

Las Zocas
1.81
Unión Viera
1.93

finishing

Las Zocas+0.00on par
Unión Viera+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Zocas ↓

Unión Viera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Las Zocas or draw
62%
Las Zocas or Unión Viera
74%
Draw or Unión Viera
65%

Winning margin

Las Zocas wins by 2+
15%
Unión Viera wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Las Zocas 1+ goals
72%
Las Zocas 2+ goals
37%
Las Zocas 3+ goals
14%
Unión Viera 1+ goals
74%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
39%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Las Zocas (draw refunded)
48%
Unión Viera (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Zocas at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Unión Viera away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Zocas attack 0.63 + Unión Viera defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

Unión Viera attack 0.87 + Las Zocas defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Las Zocas scores more
35%
level
26%
Unión Viera scores more
38%

Unión Viera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Unión Viera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Las Zocas 2–1 Unión Viera

Las Zocas beat Unión Viera 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juanito Marrero in Tenerife.