Las Zocas 0–1 Unión Sur Yaiza: Result & Stats

Las Zocas

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Unión Sur Yaiza

10/3/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5Estadio Juanito Marrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Las Zocas27%

×Draw28%

Unión Sur Yaiza45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las ZocasExpected goals in this matchUnión Sur Yaiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.34

Las Zocas

0.98

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.34

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 37% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 65 away

0.63

creates per match

0.88

1.81

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Las Zocas

0.63

Unión Sur Yaiza

0.88

allows per match

Las Zocas

1.81

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Zocas+0.00on par

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Zocas ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Las Zocas or draw

55%

Las Zocas or Unión Sur Yaiza

72%

Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza

73%

Winning margin

Las Zocas wins by 2+

10%

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Las Zocas 1+ goals

62%

Las Zocas 2+ goals

26%

Las Zocas 3+ goals

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals

74%

Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals

39%

Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Las Zocas (draw refunded)

38%

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Zocas at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Zocas attack 0.63 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.98

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Las Zocas defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Las Zocas scores more

27%

level

28%

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more

45%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Zocas vs Unión Sur Yaiza

Unión Sur Yaiza beat Las Zocas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juanito Marrero in Tenerife.

Las Zocas vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Las Zocas vs Unión Sur Yaiza