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Las Zocas vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Zocas
Las Zocas
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Tenerife II
Tenerife II
1/29/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 21Estadio Juanito Marrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Las Zocas19%
×Draw25%
Tenerife II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Zocas
0.85
Tenerife II
1.64

Tenerife II creates 93% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 74 away

creates per match

Las Zocas
0.63
Tenerife II
1.46

allows per match

Las Zocas
1.81
Tenerife II
1.08

finishing

Las Zocas+0.00on par
Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Zocas ↓

Tenerife II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Las Zocas or draw
44%
Las Zocas or Tenerife II
75%
Draw or Tenerife II
81%

Winning margin

Las Zocas wins by 2+
6%
Tenerife II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Las Zocas 1+ goals
57%
Las Zocas 2+ goals
21%
Las Zocas 3+ goals
5%
Tenerife II 1+ goals
81%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
49%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Las Zocas (draw refunded)
26%
Tenerife II (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Zocas at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Zocas attack 0.63 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.85

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Las Zocas defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Las Zocas scores more
19%
level
25%
Tenerife II scores more
56%

Tenerife II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Las Zocas 0–4 Tenerife II

Tenerife II beat Las Zocas 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Juanito Marrero in Tenerife.