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Las Zocas vs Gran Tarajal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Zocas
Las Zocas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Estadio Juanito Marrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Las Zocas32%
×Draw26%
Gran Tarajal41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Zocas
1.19
Gran Tarajal
1.39

Gran Tarajal creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 75 away

creates per match

Las Zocas
0.63
Gran Tarajal
0.97

allows per match

Las Zocas
1.81
Gran Tarajal
1.75

finishing

Las Zocas+0.00on par
Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Zocas ↓

Gran Tarajal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Las Zocas or draw
59%
Las Zocas or Gran Tarajal
74%
Draw or Gran Tarajal
68%

Winning margin

Las Zocas wins by 2+
13%
Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Las Zocas 1+ goals
70%
Las Zocas 2+ goals
33%
Las Zocas 3+ goals
12%
Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
75%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
40%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Las Zocas (draw refunded)
44%
Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Zocas at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Zocas attack 0.63 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Las Zocas defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Las Zocas scores more
32%
level
26%
Gran Tarajal scores more
41%

Gran Tarajal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gran Tarajal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Las Zocas 0–1 Gran Tarajal

Gran Tarajal beat Las Zocas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juanito Marrero in Tenerife.