Las Zocas 0–1 Atlético Paso: Result & Stats

Las Zocas

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Paso

9/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 3Estadio Juanito Marrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Las Zocas20%

×Draw27%

Atlético Paso53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las ZocasExpected goals in this matchAtlético Paso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.47

Las Zocas

0.80

Atlético Paso

1.47

Atlético Paso creates 84% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 59 away

0.63

creates per match

1.12

1.81

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Las Zocas

0.63

Atlético Paso

1.12

allows per match

Las Zocas

1.81

Atlético Paso

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Zocas+0.00on par

Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Zocas ↓

Atlético Paso →

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Las Zocas or draw

47%

Las Zocas or Atlético Paso

73%

Draw or Atlético Paso

80%

Winning margin

Las Zocas wins by 2+

Atlético Paso wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Las Zocas 1+ goals

55%

Las Zocas 2+ goals

19%

Las Zocas 3+ goals

Atlético Paso 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Paso 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Paso 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Las Zocas (draw refunded)

28%

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Zocas at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Zocas attack 0.63 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.80

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Las Zocas defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Las Zocas scores more

20%

level

27%

Atlético Paso scores more

53%

Atlético Paso at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff