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Las Vegas Lights vs Seattle Sounders II — USL Championship 2018

Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
6/17/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 24Cashman Field (Las Vegas, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Las Vegas Lights55%
×Draw22%
Seattle Sounders II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Vegas Lights
1.93
Seattle Sounders II
1.17

Las Vegas Lights creates 65% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 18 away

creates per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.42
Seattle Sounders II
0.83

allows per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.51
Seattle Sounders II
2.44

finishing

Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par
Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Vegas Lights ↓

Seattle Sounders II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Las Vegas Lights or draw
77%
Las Vegas Lights or Seattle Sounders II
78%
Draw or Seattle Sounders II
45%

Winning margin

Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
32%
Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
85%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
57%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
30%
Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
69%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
33%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
71%
Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Vegas Lights at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.51 · 131 matches

Seattle Sounders II away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.42 + Seattle Sounders II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.93

Seattle Sounders II attack 0.83 + Las Vegas Lights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Las Vegas Lights scores more
55%
level
22%
Seattle Sounders II scores more
23%

Las Vegas Lights at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Las Vegas Lights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Vegas Lights vs Seattle Sounders II

Las Vegas Lights beat Seattle Sounders II 4-1 in USL Championship on June 17, 2018.

The match was played at Cashman Field (Las Vegas, Nevada).