Las Vegas Lights 1–2 San Diego Loyal

Las Vegas Lights

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

San Diego Loyal

9/25/2022

USL Championship · Round 42Cashman Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Las Vegas Lights36%

×Draw25%

San Diego Loyal40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las Vegas LightsExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Loyal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.52

Las Vegas Lights

1.44

San Diego Loyal

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 59 away

1.42

creates per match

1.54

1.51

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Las Vegas Lights

1.42

San Diego Loyal

1.54

allows per match

Las Vegas Lights

1.51

San Diego Loyal

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Vegas Lights ↓

San Diego Loyal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Las Vegas Lights or draw

60%

Las Vegas Lights or San Diego Loyal

75%

Draw or San Diego Loyal

64%

Winning margin

Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+

17%

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals

76%

Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals

42%

Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals

18%

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

78%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

45%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)

48%

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Vegas Lights at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.51 · 131 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.42 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Las Vegas Lights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Las Vegas Lights scores more

36%

level

25%

San Diego Loyal scores more

40%

San Diego Loyal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff