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Las Vegas Lights vs Austin Bold — USL Championship 2018

Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austin Bold
Austin Bold
3/10/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 3Cashman Field (Las Vegas, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Las Vegas Lights44%
×Draw24%
Austin Bold31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Vegas Lights
1.60
Austin Bold
1.31

Las Vegas Lights creates 22% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 41 away

creates per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.42
Austin Bold
1.10

allows per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.51
Austin Bold
1.78

finishing

Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par
Austin Bold+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Vegas Lights ↓

Austin Bold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Las Vegas Lights or draw
69%
Las Vegas Lights or Austin Bold
76%
Draw or Austin Bold
56%

Winning margin

Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
22%
Austin Bold wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
80%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
47%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
22%
Austin Bold 1+ goals
73%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
38%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
58%
Austin Bold (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Vegas Lights at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.51 · 131 matches

Austin Bold away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.42 + Austin Bold defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.60

Austin Bold attack 1.10 + Las Vegas Lights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Las Vegas Lights scores more
44%
level
24%
Austin Bold scores more
31%

Las Vegas Lights at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Las Vegas Lights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Las Vegas Lights 0–0 Austin Bold

Las Vegas Lights and Austin Bold drew 0-0 in USL Championship on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Cashman Field (Las Vegas, Nevada).