Las Rozas 2–1 Ursaria: Result & Stats

Las Rozas

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ursaria

9/15/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Polideportivo Dehesa de Navalcarbón 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Las Rozas39%

×Draw26%

Ursaria35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las RozasExpected goals in this matchUrsaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.25

Las Rozas

1.34

Ursaria

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 35 away

1.78

creates per match

1.37

1.13

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Las Rozas

1.78

Ursaria

1.37

allows per match

Las Rozas

1.13

Ursaria

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Ursaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Ursaria →

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw

65%

Las Rozas or Ursaria

74%

Draw or Ursaria

61%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+

18%

Ursaria wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals

74%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

39%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

15%

Ursaria 1+ goals

71%

Ursaria 2+ goals

36%

Ursaria 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

53%

Ursaria (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Ursaria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Ursaria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ursaria attack 1.37 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Las Rozas scores more

39%

level

26%

Ursaria scores more

35%

Las Rozas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff