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Las Rozas vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
11/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Las Rozas49%
×Draw26%
Trival Valderas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.54
Trival Valderas
1.05

Las Rozas creates 47% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 115 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.78
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.13
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
74%
Las Rozas or Trival Valderas
74%
Draw or Trival Valderas
51%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
25%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
79%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
45%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
20%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
65%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
28%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
65%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Las Rozas scores more
49%
level
26%
Trival Valderas scores more
26%

Las Rozas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Las Rozas 2–3 Trival Valderas

Trival Valderas beat Las Rozas 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.