Las Rozas 1–2 Madrid 2021 FP: Result & Stats

Las Rozas

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Madrid 2021 FP

9/5/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Las Rozas46%

×Draw25%

Madrid 2021 FP29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las RozasExpected goals in this matchMadrid 2021 FP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.19

Las Rozas

1.56

Madrid 2021 FP

1.19

Las Rozas creates 31% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 35 away

1.78

creates per match

1.26

1.13

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Las Rozas

1.78

Madrid 2021 FP

1.26

allows per match

Las Rozas

1.13

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw

71%

Las Rozas or Madrid 2021 FP

75%

Draw or Madrid 2021 FP

54%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+

23%

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals

79%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

46%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

21%

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

70%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

33%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

61%

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Las Rozas scores more

46%

level

25%

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

29%

Las Rozas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Rozas vs Madrid 2021 FP

Madrid 2021 FP beat Las Rozas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.

Las Rozas vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Las Rozas vs Madrid 2021 FP