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Las Rozas vs Las Palmas II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
3/8/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Las Rozas57%
×Draw26%
Las Palmas II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.54
Las Palmas II
0.70

Las Rozas creates 120% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.29
Las Palmas II
0.40

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.00
Las Palmas II
1.80

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
83%
Las Rozas or Las Palmas II
74%
Draw or Las Palmas II
43%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
30%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
79%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
45%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
20%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
50%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
16%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
77%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.29 + Las Palmas II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Las Palmas II attack 0.40 + Las Rozas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Las Rozas scores more
57%
level
26%
Las Palmas II scores more
17%

Las Rozas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Rozas vs Las Palmas II

Las Rozas beat Las Palmas II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.