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Las Rozas vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
11/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Las Rozas57%
×Draw24%
Colonia Moscardó20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.74
Colonia Moscardó
0.91

Las Rozas creates 91% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 37 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.78
Colonia Moscardó
0.70

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.13
Colonia Moscardó
1.70

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Colonia Moscardó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
80%
Las Rozas or Colonia Moscardó
76%
Draw or Colonia Moscardó
43%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
32%
Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
82%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
52%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
25%
Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
60%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
23%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
74%
Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.74

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Las Rozas scores more
57%
level
24%
Colonia Moscardó scores more
20%

Las Rozas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Las Rozas 1–0 Colonia Moscardó

Las Rozas beat Colonia Moscardó 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.