Las Rozas 1–0 Cala Pozuelo: Result & Stats

Las Rozas

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cala Pozuelo

9/29/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Las Rozas49%

×Draw24%

Cala Pozuelo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las RozasExpected goals in this matchCala Pozuelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.19

Las Rozas

1.71

Cala Pozuelo

1.19

Las Rozas creates 44% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 17 away

1.78

creates per match

1.24

1.13

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Las Rozas

1.78

Cala Pozuelo

1.24

allows per match

Las Rozas

1.13

Cala Pozuelo

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Cala Pozuelo →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw

73%

Las Rozas or Cala Pozuelo

76%

Draw or Cala Pozuelo

51%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+

27%

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals

82%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

51%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

24%

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals

70%

Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals

33%

Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

65%

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Cala Pozuelo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.24 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Las Rozas scores more

49%

level

24%

Cala Pozuelo scores more

27%

Las Rozas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff