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Las Rozas vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 32Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Las Rozas45%
×Draw25%
Alcobendas Sport30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.54
Alcobendas Sport
1.22

Las Rozas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 117 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.78
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.13
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
70%
Las Rozas or Alcobendas Sport
75%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
55%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
22%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
79%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
45%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
20%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
70%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
34%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
60%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Las Rozas scores more
45%
level
25%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
30%

Las Rozas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Las Rozas 2–1 Alcobendas Sport

Las Rozas beat Alcobendas Sport 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.