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Las Rozas vs AD Parla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
AD Parla
AD Parla
2/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 23Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Las Rozas53%
×Draw24%
AD Parla24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.71
AD Parla
1.06

Las Rozas creates 61% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 98 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.78
AD Parla
0.99

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.13
AD Parla
1.65

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
AD Parla+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

AD Parla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
76%
Las Rozas or AD Parla
76%
Draw or AD Parla
47%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
29%
AD Parla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
82%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
51%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
24%
AD Parla 1+ goals
65%
AD Parla 2+ goals
29%
AD Parla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
69%
AD Parla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

AD Parla away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + AD Parla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

AD Parla attack 0.99 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Las Rozas scores more
53%
level
24%
AD Parla scores more
24%

Las Rozas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Rozas vs AD Parla

AD Parla beat Las Rozas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.